They issue quite a bit of SBC, as you noted. On a GAAP basis, it trades closer to 16x or so. For a company that's growing top line, likely, LSD doesn't seem that attractive, along with $4B of debt. I'm probably your age, and my observation is that people are getting off apps and are back at bars or on sports teams trying to meet people this way. I think there's some fatigue on the dating apps. If they can continue growing hinge Payers at high rates, maybe that's enough. All the writeups I've read center around Tinder payers stabilizing, making Q3 a significant quarter. I think if Tinder payers decline in Q3, Kim will be out.
That's all valid and you're probably right about the next quarter but I don't know how you're getting to 16x. I'm just using the run rate value based on the last quarter which, if you back out amortisation and currency loss was $174m. That's $700m run rate earnings on an $8b stock.
Fully agree with this analysis. No one uses Bumble that I know, and quite frankly the app is terrible. Just leaves Tinder and Hinge, both operating in two slightly different segments IMO (Tinder = known as the “sex” app, Hinge = the dating app
Weak points that I see is lack of strong founder/ceo/shareholder when compared to other tech darlings. Things can easily go ugly on the capital allocation and company direction fronts.
You mentioned $1b stock buyback but I see them expanding shares outstanding until 2021 and just recently buying back 10 million shares. Based on current price that would be $300 million. Where's thr rest? Hopefully not in the management's pockets. I'm looking at tikr data, maybe not up to date or the buyback is not finished yet.
I agree with your CEO comment. As far as the buybacks they pay out $200m of stock based compensation a year which, importantly, is expensed. Also with $600m in 2022 and $500m throughout 2023 much of the buybacks have been at higher prices than current.
Well put. Mid-20s bachelor here with the same view (as does my entire social circle).
They issue quite a bit of SBC, as you noted. On a GAAP basis, it trades closer to 16x or so. For a company that's growing top line, likely, LSD doesn't seem that attractive, along with $4B of debt. I'm probably your age, and my observation is that people are getting off apps and are back at bars or on sports teams trying to meet people this way. I think there's some fatigue on the dating apps. If they can continue growing hinge Payers at high rates, maybe that's enough. All the writeups I've read center around Tinder payers stabilizing, making Q3 a significant quarter. I think if Tinder payers decline in Q3, Kim will be out.
That's all valid and you're probably right about the next quarter but I don't know how you're getting to 16x. I'm just using the run rate value based on the last quarter which, if you back out amortisation and currency loss was $174m. That's $700m run rate earnings on an $8b stock.
I'm at $2.13 in GAAP EPS and $3.04 in adj. eps for 2024
Fully agree with this analysis. No one uses Bumble that I know, and quite frankly the app is terrible. Just leaves Tinder and Hinge, both operating in two slightly different segments IMO (Tinder = known as the “sex” app, Hinge = the dating app
Weak points that I see is lack of strong founder/ceo/shareholder when compared to other tech darlings. Things can easily go ugly on the capital allocation and company direction fronts.
You mentioned $1b stock buyback but I see them expanding shares outstanding until 2021 and just recently buying back 10 million shares. Based on current price that would be $300 million. Where's thr rest? Hopefully not in the management's pockets. I'm looking at tikr data, maybe not up to date or the buyback is not finished yet.
I agree with your CEO comment. As far as the buybacks they pay out $200m of stock based compensation a year which, importantly, is expensed. Also with $600m in 2022 and $500m throughout 2023 much of the buybacks have been at higher prices than current.
Nice writeup mate. Analysis from the zoomer perspective is likely going to have an edge on this stock relative to the heard as you point out.