So many threat from enemies, Navblue, Spire Global and Tomorrow.io.
NAVBLUE: The Insider Advantage Airbus is directly supplying flight operation software through its subsidiary, NAVBLUE. The recent strengthening of ties with major carriers like Wizz Air is a prime example of this strategy. Since Airbus builds the aircraft, they possess the "Gold Standard" algorithms to determine exactly how their planes consume the least fuel in any given environment. By bundling this real-time, high-fidelity data into the NAVBLUE package, they’ve created a one-stop shop for airlines. This effectively eliminates the incentive for carriers to seek out third-party vendors like AVTECH.
Spire Global: The Master of Proprietary DataSpire Global has bypassed traditional data sources by launching its own constellation of dozens of nanosatellites to collect global weather data directly. Unlike AVTECH, which relies on purchasing data from the UK Met Office, Spire offers data that is perceived as far more fresh and exclusive. Their ability to own the entire value chain gives them a significant edge in data sovereignty.
Tomorrow.io & ClimaCell: The Tech Giants of Hyper-Local WeatherTomorrow.io (formerly ClimaCell) has become a weather intelligence powerhouse. By leveraging proprietary satellites and AI algorithms, they provide hyper-local forecasts with pinpoint accuracy. Major U.S. carriers like Delta and United are increasingly ditching legacy tools in favor of Tomorrow.io’s platform. Their ability to analyze weather patterns even in areas without radar is a game-changer that AVTECH simply cannot match.
Great write-up, but dang, Im Swedish and trying hard to reduce home country bias!
One of my favourite podcasts about stocks "Gött Tjöt om Aktier" talks about AVTECH from time to time. It's in Swedish, but with AI tools, you can get transcripts in English. https://open.spotify.com/show/4AKvZI4RMaAKNcsjHxZreH
Here are quick AI summaries of the episodes covering AVTECH:
Episode 269: "Portföljen för 2026" (Jan 5, 2026)
In this cornerstone episode for the new year, they officially included AVTECH in their "top cases to hold for 2026."
The "Väskan" Inclusion: The hosts (Gedda and the "Horse") discussed AVTECH (at 01:26:42) as a stock they want in the portfolio specifically for its operating leverage in a recovering aviation market.
The 2026 Thesis: They argued that 2025 was a "setup year" and that 2026 is when the high-margin revenue from the newer ClearPath and proFLIGHT contracts should finally start reflecting in the quarterly reports.
Valuation Note: They mentioned that even though the stock has had a good run, the valuation (EV/EBIT) still doesn't reflect the "SaaS-like" nature of the business once the fixed costs are cleared.
Episode 247: "Casesnack med Albin / Gnuinvestor" (July 28, 2025)
This was a deep-dive guest episode that set the stage for their current bullishness.
The "Free Lottery Ticket": Guest Albin (Gnuinvestor) pitched AVTECH (at 00:25:51) as a company where you basically get a "free option" on massive growth.
Environmental Tailwinds: He pointed out that with new EU regulations on aviation emissions becoming stricter in 2026, AVTECH’s software is no longer a luxury but a "regulatory shield" for airlines to avoid fines.
The "Seal of Approval": They discussed how having Southwest and Lufthansa as long-term partners provides a level of technical validation that few other Swedish micro-caps possess.
Episode 203: "Brasilien, värmepannor och generika" (Sept 16, 2024)
AVTECH Segment: Starts at 00:19:16
The "Take": The hosts used this episode as a post-summer check-in on the company’s recent news. They focused heavily on the technical validation of the product, noting that AVTECH is moving from a "speculative tech play" to a "regulatory necessity."
Key Point: They discussed the impact of the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) on aviation. Their view was that as carbon taxes rise in 2025/2026, AVTECH’s ability to prove CO2 reductions becomes a massive sales trigger for European airlines.
Episode 194: "iGaming, löpskor och sexleksaker" (July 1, 2024)
AVTECH Segment: Starts at 00:13:54
The "Take": This followed the company’s milestone of paying its first dividend. The hosts debated whether AVTECH should be paying a dividend or reinvesting more aggressively in sales.
Key Point: Ultimately, they viewed the dividend as a "quality stamp" that proves the business model is cash-flow positive. They highlighted the Norwegian contract’s expansion into turbulence warnings as a sign of high "customer stickiness."
I like Singapore and frontier market stocks better than Swedish ones, but ok, a few interesting Swedish ones:
Hacksaw AB: B2B iGaming studio, that also owns a platform smaller studios use to distribute their games. Super high margins (over 80% operating margin), high growth, but still quite cheap (P/E 12) because the sector is a bit unloved.
Generic Sweden AB: Does critical message/alarm systems for security, healthcare and public safety. Sticky customers in their ecosystem. High growth, pays 3.3% dividends, has a cash pile, reasonably priced P/E 19
Cheffelo AB: Sells meal kits in Sweden, Norway, Denmark - not a huge fan of their business model, but their execution is great (unlike much bigger HelloFresh), doubled in price since I bought it, but still not crazy expensive.
Plejd AB: Smart lightning, and smart home equipment. Fantastic company, but very expensive - if it ever gets down to a reasonable price Im interested.
As someone who follows the slots scene closely, I personally wouldn't touch Hacksaw. The top3 slot providers that were the most popular 10 years ago are today probably like #4th, 20th and 30th most popular providers. The most popular providers today didn't even make topX lists in 2020. There is no moat and it is very low entry industry, and the industry is very cutthroat, most games released today are very rarely played 1 year from now, so studios need to keep putting out more and more games, always with some new twist. If I had to pick one name of the gambling segment, it is EVO, although I'm not loving it either. But they at least do have a decent moat since there is really only Pragmatic Play that offers competing products, and theirs are worse.
Fair points, but Id say Hacksaw has produced quite "sticky" IP compared to other studios, and been gaining market share over multiple years. Games like Wanted Dead or a Wild and Chaos Crew released years ago are still ranked highly. And they have franchises and sequels and stuff so it keeps going.
And with Remote Gaming Server (RGS) Hacksaw is a platform and distributor, not just a studio. RGS accounts for a growing proportion of Hacksaw's output.
And there is some moat in compliance, licensing and integrations - expensive/difficult for small studios. Hacksaw has established regulatory approvals (e.g., Ontario AGCO, multiple U.S. state licences, UKGC, MGA) which are difficult to reproduce. Hacksaw is also integrated with major operators like BetMGM and DraftKings.
So many threat from enemies, Navblue, Spire Global and Tomorrow.io.
NAVBLUE: The Insider Advantage Airbus is directly supplying flight operation software through its subsidiary, NAVBLUE. The recent strengthening of ties with major carriers like Wizz Air is a prime example of this strategy. Since Airbus builds the aircraft, they possess the "Gold Standard" algorithms to determine exactly how their planes consume the least fuel in any given environment. By bundling this real-time, high-fidelity data into the NAVBLUE package, they’ve created a one-stop shop for airlines. This effectively eliminates the incentive for carriers to seek out third-party vendors like AVTECH.
Spire Global: The Master of Proprietary DataSpire Global has bypassed traditional data sources by launching its own constellation of dozens of nanosatellites to collect global weather data directly. Unlike AVTECH, which relies on purchasing data from the UK Met Office, Spire offers data that is perceived as far more fresh and exclusive. Their ability to own the entire value chain gives them a significant edge in data sovereignty.
Tomorrow.io & ClimaCell: The Tech Giants of Hyper-Local WeatherTomorrow.io (formerly ClimaCell) has become a weather intelligence powerhouse. By leveraging proprietary satellites and AI algorithms, they provide hyper-local forecasts with pinpoint accuracy. Major U.S. carriers like Delta and United are increasingly ditching legacy tools in favor of Tomorrow.io’s platform. Their ability to analyze weather patterns even in areas without radar is a game-changer that AVTECH simply cannot match.
Great write-up, but dang, Im Swedish and trying hard to reduce home country bias!
One of my favourite podcasts about stocks "Gött Tjöt om Aktier" talks about AVTECH from time to time. It's in Swedish, but with AI tools, you can get transcripts in English. https://open.spotify.com/show/4AKvZI4RMaAKNcsjHxZreH
Here are quick AI summaries of the episodes covering AVTECH:
Episode 269: "Portföljen för 2026" (Jan 5, 2026)
In this cornerstone episode for the new year, they officially included AVTECH in their "top cases to hold for 2026."
The "Väskan" Inclusion: The hosts (Gedda and the "Horse") discussed AVTECH (at 01:26:42) as a stock they want in the portfolio specifically for its operating leverage in a recovering aviation market.
The 2026 Thesis: They argued that 2025 was a "setup year" and that 2026 is when the high-margin revenue from the newer ClearPath and proFLIGHT contracts should finally start reflecting in the quarterly reports.
Valuation Note: They mentioned that even though the stock has had a good run, the valuation (EV/EBIT) still doesn't reflect the "SaaS-like" nature of the business once the fixed costs are cleared.
Episode 247: "Casesnack med Albin / Gnuinvestor" (July 28, 2025)
This was a deep-dive guest episode that set the stage for their current bullishness.
The "Free Lottery Ticket": Guest Albin (Gnuinvestor) pitched AVTECH (at 00:25:51) as a company where you basically get a "free option" on massive growth.
Environmental Tailwinds: He pointed out that with new EU regulations on aviation emissions becoming stricter in 2026, AVTECH’s software is no longer a luxury but a "regulatory shield" for airlines to avoid fines.
The "Seal of Approval": They discussed how having Southwest and Lufthansa as long-term partners provides a level of technical validation that few other Swedish micro-caps possess.
Episode 203: "Brasilien, värmepannor och generika" (Sept 16, 2024)
AVTECH Segment: Starts at 00:19:16
The "Take": The hosts used this episode as a post-summer check-in on the company’s recent news. They focused heavily on the technical validation of the product, noting that AVTECH is moving from a "speculative tech play" to a "regulatory necessity."
Key Point: They discussed the impact of the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) on aviation. Their view was that as carbon taxes rise in 2025/2026, AVTECH’s ability to prove CO2 reductions becomes a massive sales trigger for European airlines.
Episode 194: "iGaming, löpskor och sexleksaker" (July 1, 2024)
AVTECH Segment: Starts at 00:13:54
The "Take": This followed the company’s milestone of paying its first dividend. The hosts debated whether AVTECH should be paying a dividend or reinvesting more aggressively in sales.
Key Point: Ultimately, they viewed the dividend as a "quality stamp" that proves the business model is cash-flow positive. They highlighted the Norwegian contract’s expansion into turbulence warnings as a sign of high "customer stickiness."
This is awesome, thank you. What other Swedish stocks do you like?
I like Singapore and frontier market stocks better than Swedish ones, but ok, a few interesting Swedish ones:
Hacksaw AB: B2B iGaming studio, that also owns a platform smaller studios use to distribute their games. Super high margins (over 80% operating margin), high growth, but still quite cheap (P/E 12) because the sector is a bit unloved.
Generic Sweden AB: Does critical message/alarm systems for security, healthcare and public safety. Sticky customers in their ecosystem. High growth, pays 3.3% dividends, has a cash pile, reasonably priced P/E 19
Cheffelo AB: Sells meal kits in Sweden, Norway, Denmark - not a huge fan of their business model, but their execution is great (unlike much bigger HelloFresh), doubled in price since I bought it, but still not crazy expensive.
Plejd AB: Smart lightning, and smart home equipment. Fantastic company, but very expensive - if it ever gets down to a reasonable price Im interested.
As someone who follows the slots scene closely, I personally wouldn't touch Hacksaw. The top3 slot providers that were the most popular 10 years ago are today probably like #4th, 20th and 30th most popular providers. The most popular providers today didn't even make topX lists in 2020. There is no moat and it is very low entry industry, and the industry is very cutthroat, most games released today are very rarely played 1 year from now, so studios need to keep putting out more and more games, always with some new twist. If I had to pick one name of the gambling segment, it is EVO, although I'm not loving it either. But they at least do have a decent moat since there is really only Pragmatic Play that offers competing products, and theirs are worse.
Fair points, but Id say Hacksaw has produced quite "sticky" IP compared to other studios, and been gaining market share over multiple years. Games like Wanted Dead or a Wild and Chaos Crew released years ago are still ranked highly. And they have franchises and sequels and stuff so it keeps going.
And with Remote Gaming Server (RGS) Hacksaw is a platform and distributor, not just a studio. RGS accounts for a growing proportion of Hacksaw's output.
And there is some moat in compliance, licensing and integrations - expensive/difficult for small studios. Hacksaw has established regulatory approvals (e.g., Ontario AGCO, multiple U.S. state licences, UKGC, MGA) which are difficult to reproduce. Hacksaw is also integrated with major operators like BetMGM and DraftKings.